Today the team had the privilege of visiting the National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center (or SPC as we like to call it). The SPC is located at Prof. Barrett's old stomping grounds/graduate school, the University of Oklahoma. As many of you weather aficionados know well, the SPC is the cream of the crop when it comes to severe weather forecasting. The few talented and dedicated meteorologists at the SPC produce daily outlooks, which are used by the weather channel, local news stations, and chasers seeking the thrill of a lifetime. They highlight risk regions all over the country, keeping a close eye on the probability of tornadoes, high wind, hail, and fires. Of course, as a team we like the tornado outlooks the most and often use them to narrow down our region of interest for the day.
After wrapping things up at the SPC, the team headed back to the the hotel, expeditiously changed out of khakis, fired up our laptops, and were greeted by an increase in severity for Northwestern Missouri, including a 2% tornado risk. I shouldn't even have to say it at this point, but yes, that information came from the SPC... The weather team quickly recognized the urgency of this event, got on the phones and ordered a mandatory weather meeting in one of the rooms. Efficiency was the name of the game especially with a decent amount of uncertainty regarding the specific location we would target. That would be decided during out several hours in the car transiting from Norman, OK to the general region of Northwestern Missouri.
In the van, the uncertainty remained as the team waited for the HRRR model to update. Some members were so stressed out about what our future held that they couldn't stand remaining conscious. Around 1500 CST, the van erupted and when the dust had settled, a target area was located. Carson, Missouri, with its favorable localized CAPE and average amount of mid-level vorticity was selected. When we arrived around 1900, this is was we were greeted by:
Some people enjoy fireworks around this time of the year, but we much preferred this show in the sky. Sadly, these storms did not produce any tornadoes, but there were indications from visual observations along with radar imagery that there was broad mid-level rotation in some of these storms. As daylight was running low, the team reached their most promising storm yet. They drove to the perfect position to observe, and amidst frequent lighting strikes from the backdrop, a low reaching wall cloud caused some excitement, but the low-level rotation needed to produce a tornado just wasn't there. While there were no tornadoes today, the group is hungry for some action later this week as the SPC has at least a 15% severe risk in place for Day 4-8.
Until next time (tomorrow night). Thank you for following our journey. We hope you enjoy reading about it half as much as we enjoy living it out!
Cheers
I know you are hoping for tornadoes, but those of us who live with them in this area would prefer not to have them. Please find them in other states - not Missouri. Thanks :)
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