Arnold Closing Thoughts

 

The past two weeks seemed almost like a blur, from blasting out west from Maryland to climbing the mountains of Colorado, SWIFT has been a blast. Learning more about supercells, mesocyclones, and tornadoes in the field has been an extremely rewarding experience. The most rewarding part of SWIFT for me was learning how to collect and analyze real world observations with the HRRR model. This gave me the opportunity to learn how the real environment may slightly or vastly differ from the environment the model provides. These analyses helped me understand the importance of understanding potential failure modes or reasons why the day may end up being a bust. Comparing the two often yields great validation or sadness given the SPC risk category for a given day. As Bill Bunting put it at the end of the day the models are always wrong but it’s up to us to determine what it actually represents well.

                Starting from our first day out here I’ve been trying to gather footage of these storms so everyone back at home can see what we saw. Now that everything is ending, I’ve finally had enough time to edit and upload the drone videos everyone has been waiting for. (No Drones were hurt in the making of these videos)

In this clip you can see the progression of a wall cloud as it begins to form. The timelapse doesn’t do it justice for showing how big the feature actually is.

Here is a low-level video of the perfect Mesocyclone we chased. Once again, this feature was a lot bigger than the drone can accurately show.

This was us on climbing one of mountains in Colorado and enjoying the view. Don’t let the video fool you, this climb was no joke!!

This was by far one of the largest shelf clouds we saw on the trip. This one feature’s outflow was almost enough to take down the drone

This timelapse was produced by speeding up the video to 4 times speed. It shows the rotation within the supercell and even hints at possibly dropping a tornado given it had all of the ingredients necessary.

This all wouldn’t be possible without an awesome team and classmates. Thank you again for following us on this Internship. It has been great.

 

Vianco: Closing Thoughts

Where to begin?

    I suppose I'll start with what I expected going into this internship. Firstly, as someone who, perhaps, didn't fully understand how rare and dynamically sensitive tornados are, I assumed that if the models and atmospheric parameters looked favorable, they would be popping up everywhere they could.

    However, looking back across SWIFT and across the numerous days where it seems as though we should've been able to observe a plethora of funnels and touchdowns, I learned that the science behind severe storms is still incomplete. There are a variety of possible factors that may or may not affect the formation of a tornado, and even though, broadly, the atmosphere looks favorable, some small factor, be it a layer of slightly warmer air aloft, or the presence of a convergent boundary, or the magnitude of precipitation, all have the potential to locally affect the thermodynamics of the atmosphere and encourage or fail to encourage the development of a tornado. 

    For example, the supercell below had visually powerful mid-level rotation, a healthy updraft, a textbook forward-flank downdraft, and a supporting environment. However, for whatever reason, the surface level vorticity that was present was unable to be stretched into a tornado. Whether is was the presence of a cold pool, or some other thermodynamic parameter that we were unable to account for, nonetheless, a tornado did not appear.

A lovely supercell 

           That being said, it was incredible to watch the theories and mathematics that we learned throughout the major's courses come alive in these supercells. Being able to see the rotating air in a wall cloud, seeing the forces actually affect the movement of the storms, or being able to relate equations to the storms' behaviors was truly the most impactful outcome of this internship. 

    At the same time, it was made abundantly clear that even though we have these equations and explanations, we make a decent amount of assumptions in their derivations, and we still don't fully understand why tornados occur in certain supercells and not in others. For us, there were a few days where we looked at the available products, forecasts, and discussions and fully expected to see a tornado in Our Storm that we were chasing. However, I learned that forecasting tornados is not an exact science, and while we were able to hypothesize about where one might be, the fluidity and constant perturbations in the atmosphere play a far greater role in their conception.

Advancing storm + wall cloud with a veiled tornado (?)

    

    Nonetheless, this internship was likely one of the most important experiences for my future career in atmospheric science, while also providing invaluable leadership opportunities. 

    However, one of the most rewarding and enjoyable aspects of the internship was definitely the connections that my classmates and myself were able to foster and develop. Which was incredibly fortunate, actually, when you consider that we spent most of our time together in a van...

Aesthetically pleasing rain

Thanks for following along, 

Sara

Julia Davis - Closing Thoughts

Parents, Grandparents, Friends, and fellow weather enthusiasts, 

I can't believe the end of our trip has come! It has been an action-packed two weeks, and I've learned a lot. What was most eye-opening for me was seeing the structure of a supercell in person. The different portions of a supercell work intricately together, and the extent and scale to which they do can be hard to understand from pictures and diagrams alone. I found it remarkable that we could see the entirety of such a massive and powerful storm (thank you Great Plains!) and see the rotation and motion that existed within it. 

What I found most surprising on our trip was how sensitive and finicky tornadogenesis is. In the classroom we learned about the parameters needed for a tornado to form, and I was left with the impression that if all of the tornado "ingredients" existed then a tornado had to form. However, I found quickly that this was not the case. It was frustrating as we watched beautiful supercells in favorable environments fail to produce tornadoes. Amid frustration, LCDR Burich reminded us that tornadoes are actually pretty rare (even in tornado alley) and oftentimes referred to as "atmospheric accidents." There are still a lot of things about these atmospheric accidents that we don't fully understand, such as why tornadogenesis occurs in some seemingly favorable environments but not others. Some parameters and small-scale features affect tornadogenesis in ways we don't quite understand yet, and this reinforces the need for further research of tornadogenesis so warnings can be more accurately issued. 

Lastly, I have to thank all of the small towns in Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Colorado for welcoming us with open arms (and inquisitive stares). From quirky tourist stops, like the World's Largest Catsup Bottle, to beautiful wide open fields and happy cows, I've thoroughly enjoyed exploring the Great Plains. 

While our eyes have been glued to the sky, our thoughts are with those who have been affected by the past weeks' tornadoes. 

Thank you all for following along with our adventures! 

-Julia

Sell Closing Thoughts

     Well here we are, it's 5:57, we are back on Eastern Daylight Time, driving through the hills of West Virginia on our way back to Annapolis...WHAT...A... TRIP!

    Coming into SWIFT I didn't know what to expect, a boatload of tornadoes like in "Twister"? Maybe these huge, long tracking tornadoes across the plains daily? However, none of that was really the case, instead what I got was so much better. I got the opportunity to spent two weeks in the field with 7 other people, I didn't really know, besides from class, and the casual everyday passing at USNA. Over these last two weeks I have had more laughs and more memories then I can remember. Going clear back to the start and Alex being banned from telling jokes 3 hours into the car ride, being able to share my family (mainly my mom's wonderful cooking) with my friends, climbing two peaks (one Colorado and the other in Oklahoma), road DD in northwest Kansas (please don't let me get the van stuck), the "full of energy" Marshal in Dodge City, and of course storm chasing. These are just an extremely small amount of the great memories I have taken from this trip, not to mention the new friendships I have with my team.

I would be missing the point of this post, I think, if I didn't talk a bit about the weather. Honestly, I can't even begin to describe it, the storms and some of their structures was something to stand there and be in awe about. I had thought, being from Ohio, I had seen a storm or two in my life. I can assure you nothing compares to the supercell storms of the plains. The classroom work done before this internship, looking at pictures and videos does not do a justice to what we as a team have seen these last few weeks on the plains. I can see why some people get bitten by the "bug" and keep coming back year after year to chase.

I hope during this blog you got a good look into our lives. This internship is one I will never forgot, and is truly unlike anything else I have done at the academy. I am thankful for the team I was able to work with, to CDR and LCDR for their mentorship, and putting up with 6 college kids in a van for two weeks. There are a lot more stories to share, more then what I can type in this blog, however, it's time for me to sign off. Time to hop into a different car, make the "short" (relatively speaking compared to going to Kansas) drive to Ohio, and take some much-needed leave with family. I have eaten my last Zebra Cake on this trip, thanks for following. 

-Ben "big deborah" Sell

SWIFTs youngest recruit

The "mothership" storm

Boulder Climbers

Gilbert Closing Thoughts

Hello devoted followers of the SWIFT team! Wow, these past two weeks have been a whirlwind of driving, chasing, eating, and adventure; I can't believe it's already coming to an end. This trip has been everything I expected and everything I didn't. Who could've known how complex storm chasing actually is? To be successful, it is important to understand and to analyze various models ahead of time, while also being able to adapt and change course during the heat of the chase. However, to make it even more confusing, the models we base early decisions on aren't even always correct. We experienced this on our last chase day. The morning models suggested PDS tornadoes in our vicinity, however, the models failed to pick up on certain thermodynamic forcings and tornadoes were a bust. This made me realize the models are not perfect and the scientific community is still working to innovate our current technology and understanding of them. Real storm chasing requires understanding, yes, but also luck. I have tremendous respect for forecasters and the work they do everyday to make the most accurate predictions with the information they have. At the end of the day, the weather is up to mother nature and completely out of human control, we are all just trying to do better everyday at understanding her.

                                                                      The Final Chase

The storms we chased were breathtaking. We had a sunset supercell early on in the trip, a funnel cloud, and a beautifully structured supercell in Kansas. Besides the storms, we also got to enjoy the gorgeous Rocky Mountains in Colorado and the Wichita Mountains of Oklahoma. The road trip aspect of SWIFT has been a lot of fun. I loved watching America's scenery roll by outside the van. Now, some people may consider being "stuck" in a van with seven other people a type of torture, but it's all about the company. We were lucky enough to have an amazing team that filled the trip with non-stop laughter. 

                                                       

                                                                        Sunset Storm

                                                                     Colorado Rockies

                                                                       The mothership

                                                           funnel cloud, not funnel cake

I am thankful to have had the chance to roll through 13 states with such awesome people. Without this internship who knew if I would have ever gotten to see even half the things we did (or try half the food we did haha). From our outreach in Wagner, to our somber experience in Joplin, to the amazing storms, amazing food, and amazing people, it's been one heck of an internship!

Schuerch Closing Thoughts

 It's been quite the time,

These past couple of weeks have gone by faster than I realized. I've thoroughly enjoyed the experience whether it was learning what actual weather conditions are like in the field to having fun in our activities.

Weather

As Bill Bunting at the SPC once told us "[forecasts or models] are all wrong, but they can be useful." There were instances that the models, such as the HRRR and NAM, were not on the mark. This was especially prevalent on the last day of chasing with our storm dubbed "Scotty." Although the models took into account numerous amounts of information and calculations, we learned they are only good to a point. The models that morning did not predict many of the storms that were happening. Even the current models didn't show storms that were happening in the moment. Even though Scotty seemed weak, especially after he split, we followed him because the HRRR showed him cranking up to be quite the storm near dawn. Although he was not the big kahuna we thought he was going to be, he did eventually produce hail. 

There is always that "would-a-could-a-should-a talk", but we stuck to the conditions such as CAPE, SRH, and other parameters along with the models. We thought we had something good and there were so many scenarios that could have played out. 

Although some days like I mentioned did not turn out like we would have wanted, this goes to show that there is always more to improve on. Even in the field of meteorology in which so much has been contributed to it, there is always more to understand. We saw some amazing storms and even a tornado even if it was for a brief moment while we were far away. Taking the storms class along with this internship has given me a new understanding and respect for the forecasters out there who work tirelessly to get us the information we need.

Activities

Hiking the Rockies was one of my favorite moments on the trip. Although we were only given an hour to hike after the weather brief (because storms were forecasted to initiate earlier that day) we made the most of it! It was a great change of pace, quite literally, as we trekked through the Greyrock Meadow Trail. I really enjoyed going to all these new places and taking it all in -especially the food. Being in the Midwest to experience the culture has been remarkable and I hope to come back sometime to learn more. This internship has left its mark on me -literally. 

-Alex Schuerch

Day 12: The Last Chase

Hello everyone,

This has been our last day of chasing storms and it has been quite the day. We finally met up with our very special guest, Professor Barrett! He was our teacher and mentor alongside LCDR Burich when we took the Tornadoes and Severe Convective Storms class last year. He first did SWIFT with the first group of Midshipmen in 2010. We had a very nice lunch at the Black Bison Pub with him and caught up. Once we finished that we began the chase.

Agony could describe the situation we found ourselves in. Storms were popping up to our south, east, and north. We had a plethora of favorable conditions right where we were at but no storms. Then there was the boundary peeling back causing some initiation to our west. If the boundary met with our favorable conditions we thought we could have had something big. We were at a crossroads with the options, all of which were a significant distance away. We headed east and stopped regularly to convene and waited to see if anything else changed. Prof Barrett kept in contact regularly with us with his rental car. Right as we were about to decide on a storm and drive the distance, a cumulus cloud turned right behind our backs near Scott City. "Scotty" was the storm's name. 

It was heartwarming to watch his first bolts of lightning. As we watched "Scotty" grow from a cumulus cloud we noticed something. He was starting to split into a right and left mover. Eventually he split with the left mover and somehow the left mover became cyclonic (which is really abnormal!). 

We dubbed the left mover "Skylar." Next thing you know "Skylar" started splitting and and other storm "Patricia" popped out.

These three storms moved northward and did not seem to be very stream wise. This is bad for tornadogenesis. Teenagers, they do exactly what you don't want them to do. We hung out with them but there didn't seem to be much hope as they sputtered all over. We started moving north when Scotty started gaining traction. We checked the HRRR model again and saw that it predicted that it would row into a monster of a storm by dawn. We turned right onto I-70 to chase Scotty one last time. He just needed time and self-discovery to get life together. 

Eventually Scotty got a severe warning but we got discouraged again because he exhibited potential anti-cyclonic behavior and cold surface temperatures. We started to move north to meet up with the tumultuous storms in Nebraska. Then right as we did that the radar indicated Scotty had strong cyclonic vorticity and developed something of a wall cloud. Apparently he liked to mess with us. Even with all the tornado indicators, all we got out of Scotty was rain, wind, and hail. Although the cumulus cloud we watched grow up wasn't what we expected, it was still a strong storm in its own right.

As we started our trek back to the academy we found ourselves in a sea of storms. We had to adjust our course to avoid them and their hail riddled cores. Surprisingly, there are hills in Kansas and we couldn't see the far away ground most times. Lightning was the only thing allowing us to see the storms in the distance besides radar. We saw some scud clouds along with some tendrils moving as the lightning flashes continued. Maybe it was our imaginations, but maybe -just maybe- it could have been a tornado.

We have some serious road ahead of us. Although we don't have any more chases to go on, we hope you stay tuned for our closing thoughts.

Day 11: Getting out of Dodge!

 First, a slight apology for the delay in this post, it was a nice relaxing day in Dodge City, Kansas. With no weather in sight or on radar, the SWIFT team took the day off to relax and explore a staple in American history. The team had a, as Alex would call it "real treat" of a conversation with a marshall in town, who told us, with great energy, the history of the city. In a day filled with coffee shops, antique shops, ice cream, and steak dinner. It was the final meal as a "full team" as we said goodbye to CDR Carmody. It was a great day and it was a much needed day, as SWIFT takes on its last day of chasing.

The cows from yesterday's post made a "slightly" different appearance in this shot.

Today its back to northwest Kansas for our last day of chasing. It's going to be a busy day on the Plains as the tornado threat really ramps up! Look for exciting pictures tonight (hopefully)! SWIFT out!!

Day 10: Kansas!

Good evening SWIFT enthusiasts!

Today was quite the day in Kansas. After an exciting day yesterday, we started off slow this morning but got into chase mode with ease. During the weather brief we determined heading south was the best option especially since the storms would be firing off earlier today.

 

Afternoon

We had a grab and go lunch at Qdoba’s in Colby, KS. We fueled up on gas and headed south to meet an initiating storm. We hung out with that storm most of the afternoon. Ben got us out of some destroyed dirt roads that someone decided to drive a semi-truck through. He was awarded Zebra Cakes, again, for his heroism in the line of duty. We followed it by heading east and then heading north. Eventually we met up with some cows. With the supercell in the distance the cows came near us but kept their distance. They were oddly huddled together. Once some other storm chaser’s drone came close, the cows jostled each other to get away from the thing. To be clear, Langston and Julia kept a respectful distance from the cows while operating the drone. Five or ten minutes after the drones were gone, the cows came back -but closer this time! I think Julia appreciated our new friends. We then headed south to Scott City for a pitstop at Love’s Travel Shop.

 

Evening

It was at the Love’s where we came to a crossroads. There were two areas of interest: the storm we chased to the north and a group of storms to the south. After looking over the HRRR model and radar, the weather team decided to go south due to its unimpeded inflow, direction, and anticipated longevity.  We made quick work of heading down to the southern storm. 

At our first stop we were greeted by many locals who were passing bye, and they seemed really nice. The pigs in the adjacent building were squealing out of excitement. We could hear them the whole half hour we were at that spot.

We jutted to a few other locations as we wanted to stay with the storm, but not too close where we could possibly get drenched or worse. Tornadoes were reported on the other side of the storm that we were looking upon but much of it was shrouded by rain. Eventually the storm wasn’t having it and became a mess on the radar. It seemed to have a lot of precipitation and a lot of outflow. The rotation of the wall cloud seemed quite large to produce a tornado.

As for tomorrow we have a very special guest joining us. It’ll be a surprise! Stay tuned for more updates.

 

Day 9: Lots of Action in Eastern Colorado!

 Hello weather enthusiasts, 

Today, the SWIFT team had quite the adventure. We spent all day chasing multiple tornadoes throughout northeastern Colorado and had a lot of success! The first supercell we chased in the early afternoon was near Akron, CO. We saw it make several attempts to spin up, but ultimately the tornado formed after it became rain-wrapped, and it was hard for us to see. Reports indicated that the tornado produced 2-3" hailstones-- that's one strong rotating updraft! 

                                        A wall cloud that we really really wanted to be a tornado.

*Cue the Wicked Witch of the West and flying monkeys*

Captured radar image of the tornado we were chasing which evolved into:

The question mark radar capture: Where is the tornado??? (behind the rain shield)

Later in the afternoon, we headed south towards Wray, CO to watch another supercell attempt to create tornadoes. We followed many tornado warnings and kept an eye on tornado signatures on the radar, but only saw a few funnel clouds and some jaw-dropping scenery. 

A funnel cloud that we also really wanted to become a tornado (we even did our lucky pushups!)

Nothing better than watching a supercell at sunset.

We ended our night with a beautiful lightning show as storms passed by, and are staking out in Oberlin, Kansas ready for more action tomorrow. Thanks for reading! 

Until next time, 

SWIFT 2021

Day 8 Tornado in Colorado!

 I think we can all say that today had two distinct parts: mountain bathing and storm chasing. 

The Rockies

The team hit the road bright and early in order to do some hiking within Colorado's Rocky Mountains. The trail of the day was Greyrock Trail in Fort Collins. While a bit overcast, the terrain was beautiful, and I know the whole team enjoyed getting some fresh air and moving around. A small group made it to a faux peak, however, had to run (or control fall) their way back in order to make our time crunch. Only minor injuries occurred.`

Storm Mode

After our hike, it was a very quick turnaround to storm chasing mode. With a two and half hour drive back and storm initiation predicted to happen in the early afternoon, we had to get back asap! The main action of the day took place a little north of Limon, CO. With multiple tornado warnings going off, the whole team was on the edge of our seats and for good reason, as we saw a tornado! (It was brief, but it definitely counts). Besides the tornado, we also got to stand and observe a very nice rotating wall cloud. 

    Electrifying! 

Rotating Wall Cloud

                                                                        Run Forest, Run!

Our tornado producer!